Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer
Abstract: Stay-at-home orders issued to slow the spread of COVID-19 may have severely distorted labor market statistics, notably the official unemployment rate. A method to correct the survey biases associated with the pandemic indicates that the true unemployment rate was substantially higher than the official rate in April and May. However, the biases appeared to fade thereafter, making the drop in June even more dramatic than implied by the official data.
File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2020/september/adjusting-unemployment-thermometer/el2020-27.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2020-09-03