The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth

Foerster, Andrew; Matthes, Christian; Seitelman, Lily

Journal Article

The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth

Abstract: Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.

Keywords: productivity;