The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth
Abstract: Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.
File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2020-21.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2020-08-03