Why Is Unemployment Currently So Low?

Kudlyak, Marianna; Ochse, Mitchell

Journal Article

Why Is Unemployment Currently So Low?

Abstract: Unemployment is at a 50-year low. The low rate is not from an unusually high job-finding rate out of unemployment but, rather, an unusually low rate at which people enter unemployment. The low entry rate reflects a long-run downward trend likely due to population aging, better job matches, and other structural factors. These developments lowered the long-run unemployment rate trend. At the end of 2019, the unemployment rate was below the trend but no more so than in previous business cycle peaks, indicating that the labor market is no tighter.

Keywords: out of the labor force; employment; unemployment;