Journal Article

Who from Out of the Labor Force Is Most Likely to Find a Job?

Abstract: The best predictor of someone from outside the labor force finding a job is how recently the person was employed, rather than their self-reported desire to work as is conventionally thought. Between 1999 and 2019, the composition of the out of the labor force group shifted towards people out of work for longer. Consequently, the pool has become less employable. This indicates that, even though the out of the labor force pool is larger, it does not signify additional labor market slack beyond that accounted for by the standard unemployment rate.