Journal Article
Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?
Abstract: With the U.S. labor market at or near maximum employment, assessing trend job growth has become increasingly important. This ?breakeven? rate, which is the pace of job growth needed to maintain a healthy labor market, depends primarily on growth in the labor force. Estimates that account for population aging and potential labor force participation trends suggest that trend growth ranges between about 50,000 and 110,000 jobs per month. Actual job growth has been well above this pace, implying that it can slow substantially in the future without undermining labor market health.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2016
Order Number: 32