Disagreement about the inflation outlook

Leduc, Sylvain; Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Weidner, Justin

Journal Article

Disagreement about the inflation outlook

Abstract: Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy communications strategy.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Economic forecasting;