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Journal Article

Gauging the momentum of the labor recovery


Abstract: Federal Reserve policymakers are watching a broad set of indicators for signs of ?substantial? labor market improvement, a key consideration for beginning to scale back asset purchases. One way to find which are most useful is to focus on how well movements in these indicators predict changes in the unemployment rate. Research suggests that six indicators are most promising. They offer evidence that the recovery has more momentum now than a year ago, a strong signal that the labor market is improving and could accelerate in coming months.

Keywords: Labor market;

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File(s): http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/october/labor-market-recovery-momentum-indicators/el2013-30.pdf/

File(s): http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/october/labor-market-recovery-momentum-indicators/

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2013

Order Number: 30