Journal Article
The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth
Abstract: The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 was shockingly weak. However, such estimates in the past appear to have understated first-quarter growth fairly consistently, even though they are adjusted to try to account for seasonal patterns. Applying a second round of seasonal adjustment corrects this residual seasonality. After this correction, aggregate output grew much faster in the first quarter than reported.
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http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/may/weak-first-quarter-gdp-residual-seasonality-adjustment/el2015-16.pdf
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2015
Order Number: 16