Journal Article
Consumer Vibe Check: Gas Prices and Inflation Expectations
Abstract: According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when households revise up their outlook for gas price growth but change little when they revise it down. This pattern is strongest among lower-income and less-educated households. Analysis also suggests that increases in expected gas price growth are associated with greater perceived inflation uncertainty. However, quantitatively, the evidence suggests a moderate relationship between changes in expected gasoline prices and households’ inflation expectations.
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2026-08-31
Volume: 5
Issue: 2026-24
Pages: 5