Journal Article

Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth?


Abstract: Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in artificial intelligence technology, these conditions have raised the question of whether the economy is entering a high-productivity growth period. Two well-known productivity measures do not yet provide strong evidence of this shift. However, recent patterns resemble the mixed signals during the early stages of the 1990s productivity surge before a sustained high-growth period materialized, giving reason for cautious optimism about future productivity growth.

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: FRBSF Economic Letter

Publication Date: 2026-05-26

Volume: 2026

Issue: 14

Pages: 5