Working Paper

Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry

Abstract: This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly industrial production and the spread between the 6-month commercial paper and the federal funds rates is used as an example to illustrate forecast exercise. This paper's method does not require a forecaster to make an exact ex-ante determination of turning points in the output series which is being forecasted. Comparison of the forecast performance of various two-regime based and conventional models suggests that a measurable gain can be made by considering models which explicitly incorporate asymmetry in data.

Keywords: Business cycles; Industrial productivity; Econometric models;


Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory

Publication Date: 1993

Number: 93-12