Working Paper

Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure

Abstract: The amount of information in the yield curve for forecasting future changes in short rates varies with the maturity of the rates involved. Indeed, spreads between certain long and short rates appear unrelated to future changes in the short rate--contrary to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This paper estimates a daily model of Federal Reserve interest rate targeting behavior, which, accompanied by the maintained hypothesis of rational expectations, explains the varying predictive ability of the yield curve and elucidates the link between Fed policy and the term structure.

Keywords: Rational expectations (Economic theory); Monetary policy - United States; Interest rates;

Status: Published in Journal of Monetary Economics (April 1995, v. 35 no. 2, p. 245-274)


Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory

Publication Date: 1995

Number: 95-02