Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous

RePEc Short ID: ppl48
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0604-105X

Bernstein, Joshua; Plante, Michael D.; Richter, Alexander W.; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.

doi:10.24149/wp2109

Working Paper

Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous

Abstract: This paper uses a battery of calibrated and estimated structural models to determine the causal drivers of the negative correlation between output and aggregate uncertainty. We find the transmission of uncertainty shocks to output is weak, while aggregate uncertainty endogenously responds to first moment shocks in the presence of labor market search frictions. This indicates that countercyclical movements in aggregate uncertainty are endogenous responses to changes in output, rather than exogenous impulses. A vector autoregression on simulated data shows recursive identification techniques do not robustly identify structural uncertainty shocks.

Keywords: Uncertainty Shocks; Endogenous Uncertainty; Variance Decomposition; Nonlinear;

JEL Classification: C13; D81; E32; E37; J64;

https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2109