Working Paper
Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?
Abstract: This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual data over the period 1981-2014, we employ the Cross-Sectionally augmented Autoregressive Distributive Lag (CS-ARDL) methodology for estimation to account for cross-country heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and feedback effects. We find that while CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth (operating through lower accumulation of physical capital and lower TFP), the average impact is dampened if a country has a SWF and better institutional quality (hence a more stable government expenditure).
JEL Classification: C23; E32; F43; O13; O40;
https://doi.org/10.24149/gwp304
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Part of Series: Globalization Institute Working Papers
Publication Date: 2017-02-01
Number: 304
Pages: 22 pages