Journal Article
Survey-based forecasts identify likely inflation outcomes
Abstract: Professional forecasters generally better predict inflation than household surveys and often outperform nave year-ahead forecasts based on the Fed?s 2 percent target. Constants, the basis of the nave forecasts, benefit because they are not subject to month-to-month volatility.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Part of Series: Economic Letter
Publication Date: 2015-08
Volume: 10
Issue: 8
Pages: 1-4