Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

RePEc Short ID: pha1454
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5982-0914

Hajdini, Ina

doi:10.26509/frbc-wp-202203r

Working Paper Revision

Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

Abstract: The paper considers a New Keynesian framework in which agents form expectations based on a combination of autoregressive mis-specified forecasts and myopia. The proposed expectations formation process is shown to be consistent with all three empirical facts on consensus inflation forecasts. However, while mis-specified forecasts can be both sufficient and necessary to match all three facts, myopia alone is neither. The paper then derives the general equilibrium solution consistent with the proposed expectations formation process and estimates the model with likelihood-based Bayesian methods, yielding three novel results: (i) macroeconomic data strongly prefer a combination of autoregressive mis-specified forecasting rules - of the VAR(1) or AR(1) type - and myopia over other alternatives; (ii) no strong evidence is found in favor of VAR(1) forecasts over simple AR(1) rules; and (iii) frictions such as habit in consumption, which are typically necessary for models with full-information rational expectations, are significantly less important, because the proposed expectations generate substantial internal persistence and amplification to exogenous shocks. Simulated inflation expectations data from the estimated general equilibrium model reflect the three empirical facts on forecasting data.

Keywords: Myopia; Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); Bayesian Estimation; Internal Propagation;

JEL Classification: C11; C53; D84; E13; E30; E50; E52; E70;

https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202203r