Working Paper

Where the Wild Things Are: Measuring Systemic Risk through Investor Sentiment


Abstract: In this paper, I develop a systemic risk measure derived from investor sentiment that has predictive power over future economic activity and market returns. Unlike existing measures, it is not focused on flagging investors? heightened awareness of risk at the end of a boom episode but rather on capturing shifts in their trading behavior at the beginning of the episode. The method allows investors and regulators to observe industries in which risks could be building and provides regulators some lead time in deploying their macroprudential tools.

Keywords: Financial stability; Risk management; Investor sentiment; Systemic risk;

JEL Classification: G11; G18; G01; G28; G12;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Working Papers (Old Series)

Publication Date: 2016-02-19

Number: 1608

Pages: 80 pages