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Journal Article

Monetary policy and self-fulfilling expectations: the danger of forecasts


Abstract: What rule should a central bank interested in inflation stability follow? Because monetary policy tends to work with lags, it is tempting to use inflation forecasts to generate policy advice. This article, however, suggests that the use of forecasts to drive policy is potentially destabilizing. The problem with forecast-based policy is that the economy becomes vulnerable to what economists term ?sunspot? fluctuations. These welfare-reducing fluctuations can be avoided by using a policy that puts greater weight on past, realized inflation rates rather than forecasted, future rates.

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Economic Review

Publication Date: 2001

Issue: Q I

Pages: 9-19