Journal Article

A Real-Time Assessment of Inflation Nowcasting at the Cleveland Fed

Abstract: Using a model based on staff research, the Cleveland Fed’s website provides daily nowcasts—or near-term predictions—of multiple US inflation measures for public use. In this Commentary, we compare the historical predictive accuracy of the model behind those inflation nowcasts with the accuracy of inflation nowcasts coming from competing sources: surveys of professional forecasters and alternative statistical models. We find that our inflation nowcasts have performed relatively well in these comparisons, both over a long sample and a short sample that focuses on the period since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: inflation;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Economic Commentary

Publication Date: 2023-03-06

Volume: 2023

Issue: 06

Pages: 8