Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters

RePEc Short ID: pri146
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2482-072X

Naggert, Kristoph; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph

doi:10.26509/frbc-ec-202109

Journal Article

Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters

Abstract: This Commentary examines the response of longer-run inflation expectations to the FOMC’s August 2020 announced switch to a flexible average inflation-targeting (FAIT) regime. The data indicate an upward shift in the lower end (below 2 percent) of the distribution of inflation expectations and a stronger anchoring of expectations around the 2 percent inflation objective following the announcement, evidence that is consistent with intended effects of the change in the monetary policy framework. To provide context, we also include a retrospective assessment of the response of inflation expectations to the FOMC’s January 2012 announcement of an inflation objective. Lessons from the 2012 announcement suggest that conclusions about the adoption of the FAIT regime should be viewed as tentative. Consequently, we also describe indicators and features of the data to monitor developments going forward.

Keywords: inflation; forecasting;

https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202109