Journal Article
Does the yield curve signal recession?
Abstract: Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities - a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.
Keywords: Interest rates; Recessions; Economic forecasting;
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-20060415
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Part of Series: Economic Commentary
Publication Date: 2006
Issue: Apr
Order Number: 2