Journal Article

The great moderation: good luck, good policy, or less oil dependence?

Abstract: Three explanations have been suggested for the moderation in real GDP and inflation that has occurred in industrialized countries since the 1980s: good luck, better monetary policy, and structural changes in the economy. Recent research finds that better monetary policy explains most of the moderation in inflation, and good luck and the less-intensive use of oil (a structural change) have played a major role in the moderation of GDP.

Keywords: Petroleum products - Prices; Economic conditions; Monetary policy;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Economic Commentary

Publication Date: 2008

Issue: Mar

Order Number: 1