Journal Article
Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment
Abstract: Measures of regional economic sentiment, extracted from the Beige Book using natural language processing methods, consistently delivered reliable real-time forecasts of US recessions from the mid-1980s through the COVID-19 pandemic recession. Since then, recession risk probabilities have been choppy, with several false alarms. We attribute this unreliability to a post-2021 disconnect between measures of economic activity and the sentiment of business and community leaders.
https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202513
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Part of Series: Economic Commentary
Publication Date: 2025-11-10
Volume: 2025
Issue: 13
Pages: 12