Trade Wars on the Income Statement: the Effects of Tariffs on Firms

RePEc Short ID: pba1895
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1513-3805

Barbiero, Omar; Sheremirov, Viacheslav; Silva, Alvaro; Stein, Hillary

doi:10.29412/res.wp.2026.15

Working Paper

Trade Wars on the Income Statement: the Effects of Tariffs on Firms

Abstract: We construct firm-level exposure to the 2018 and 2025 US tariffs through own imports, suppliers' imports, and foreign retaliation, and estimate their joint effects using quarterly financial statements. Exposure is widespread and travels down supply chains, reaching firms that import little themselves. In 2025, cost exposure reduced sales and cost of goods sold equally within three quarters, by about 1.2 percent for the average direct importer and 0.5 percent through suppliers. Firms at least partly passed tariffs on to prices and shrank production rather than cutting margins. Retaliation instead compressed gross margins. The 2018 effects are small.

JEL Classification: F13; F14; F23; F41; F62; G38;

https://doi.org/10.29412/res.wp.2026.15