Journal Article

What past recoveries say about the outlook for New England

Abstract: New England lagged behind the national recovery in the mid 1970s but did better than average coming out of the 1982 recession. The regions strong recovery after 1982 was the result of increased defense contracts, a high-tech export orientation, and the waning of the 1970s energy price shock. What do those experiences suggest about the pace and character of the present recovery? ; Regression results indicate that the most important determinants of a states recovery are how well its key industries perform nationally, relative wage and energy cost changes, and the fiscal picture. New Englands industry mix, its pre-recession increases in real wages, state government spending cutbacks, and federal defense cuts all point to a 1991-94 recovery that will be slower than the national average.

Keywords: New England; Federal Reserve District, 1st;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Part of Series: New England Economic Review

Publication Date: 1992

Issue: Sep

Pages: 15-32