Sectoral inflation and the Phillips curve: what has changed since the Great Recession?

Abstract: Using sectoral data at a medium level of aggregation, we find that price changes became less responsive to aggregate unemployment around 2009?2010. The slopes of the disaggregated Phillips curves diminished in many sectors, including housing and some services. We also document a decrease in sectoral inflation persistence, suggesting an increase in the weight of the forward-looking inflation expectation component and a decrease in the weight of the backward-looking component.

Keywords: Phillips curve; inflation persistence; disaggregate price indices;

JEL Classification: E31; E24; E32;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Part of Series: Current Policy Perspectives

Publication Date: 2017-11-01

Number: 17-5

Pages: 20 pages