Who Will Pay for Tariffs? Businesses’ Expectations about Costs and Prices

Andrade, Philippe; Dietrich, Alexander; Leer, John; Lin, Xiao; Schoenle, Raphael; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon

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Who Will Pay for Tariffs? Businesses’ Expectations about Costs and Prices

Abstract: Amid evolving global trade policy and rising tariff uncertainty, understanding how small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) form expectations about future costs and adjust their pricing is critical for assessing how the recently imposed tariffs on US imports could impact consumer prices. To that end, we analyze several waves of a survey of owners and other decision-makers at a nationally representative sample of US SMBs, defined as companies that employ 500 or fewer workers. We focus on waves conducted during the period of December 2024 to August 2025.

JEL Classification: C83; E31; F13; F14; F40;