Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses

Andrade, Philippe; Dietrich, Alexander; Handley, Sophie; Leer, John; Schoenle, Raphael; Tang, Jenny; Zakrajšek, Egon

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Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on the Outlook of Small and Medium-sized Businesses

Abstract: A large body of research demonstrates that uncertainty affects many dimensions of firms’ decisions, from investment and hiring to pricing and profitability. To gain a better understanding of how uncertainty induced by shifting trade policy shapes the behavior of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) the authors surveyed decision-makers at SMBs. The survey, administered by Morning Consult, was conducted in three waves: in December 2024, February 2025, and late April 2025. Each wave contained a nationally representative sample of about 600 SMBs.

JEL Classification: F13; F40; D22; D81; C83;