Conference Paper

Policy implications of demographic change: panel discussion: the economic impact of demographic change: a case for more immigration

Abstract: By 2025, the world's population will have grown by another 1.8 billion or so, bringing it to roughly 8 billion. Ninety-five percent of the increment will be in what today are called developing countries; only 5 percent will be in the rich industrialized countries. Indeed, birth rates have fallen below the replacement rate (about 2.1 children per female of childbearing age) in all the rich countries, as well as in Slavic Europe, Russia, and China. The birth rate is down to 1.35 in Japan and to an extraordinary low of 1.2 in Italy. Demographic inertia will lead to continued population increase for a decade or more in many of these countries, especially China. But in the longer run, population (and presumably, labor force) growth will turn negative. Indeed, it is already negative in Japan.

Keywords: Economic conditions; Emigration and immigration; Demography;

Status: Published in Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Part of Series: Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Publication Date: 2001

Volume: 46

Pages: 305-309