The Anatomy of Polarization: Evidence from Worker Flows

Cerina, Fabio; Dienesch, Elisa; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Moro, Alessio

doi:10.29338/wp2026-07

Working Paper

The Anatomy of Polarization: Evidence from Worker Flows

Abstract: Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984–2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to noncollege workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from nonemployment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from nonemployment into manual work increases. These patterns motivate life-cycle models of occupational choice that explicitly incorporate cohort heterogeneity and separate entry and re-entry margins.

JEL Classification: J62; J24; J21;

https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2026-07