Working Paper

The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics

Abstract: We study the role of supply chain disruptions in shaping consumer prices, focusing on both firms' own import shocks and strategic responses to competitors' disruptions. Using a newly constructed microlevel dataset that links transaction-level US import data from bills of lading with high-frequency consumer prices and sales from a consumer panel, we develop a novel approach to estimate the price effects of cost shocks and product availability. Motivated by a model of delivery delays, cost shocks, and firm pricing, we implement a shift-share identification strategy based on delivery shortfalls, port congestion, and freight and import costs. We find sizable pass-through elasticities: firms raise prices in response to higher import costs and delivery delays, especially when disruptions persist. We also identify strategic pricing: firms—including non-importers—increase prices in response to competitors' supply chain disruptions. Using our estimates and back-of-the-envelope calculations from the model, we show that strategic interactions significantly amplified the direct effects of supply chain shocks on consumer prices during the pandemic.

JEL Classification: E31; F14;

https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2025-08

Status: Published in 2025

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Part of Series: FRB Atlanta Working Paper

Publication Date: 2025-09-24

Number: 2025-8