Working Paper

Affine term structure pricing with bond supply as factors

Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical model for analyzing the effect of the maturity structure of government debt on the yield curve. It is an ATSM (affine term structure model) in which the factors for the yield curve include, in addition to the short rate, the government bond supply for each maturity. The supply shock is not restricted to be perfectly correlated across maturities. The effect on the yield curve of a bond supply shock that is local to a maturity is largest at the maturity. This hump-shaped response of the yield curve persists in spite of the absence of preferred-habitat investors.

Keywords: ATSM; yield curve; portfolio balance channel; supply of government bonds; impulse responses;

JEL Classification: E43; E58; G12;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Part of Series: FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper

Publication Date: 2016-04-01

Number: 2016-1

Pages: 19 pages