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Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable

Abstract: The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?

Keywords: unemployment; forecasting; recession;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Source: Dallas Fed Economics

Publication Date: 2024-10-08