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Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation


Abstract: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.

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File(s): File format is text/html https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0708
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Source: Dallas Fed Economics

Publication Date: 2025-07-08