Industry-Level Sources for Solid US Employment Growth: Running on Empty or More Room to Run?

Higgins, Patrick C.; Pitts, M. Melinda; Wiczer, David

doi:10.29338/ph2024-08

Journal Article

Industry-Level Sources for Solid US Employment Growth: Running on Empty or More Room to Run?

Abstract: The labor market has exhibited solid growth in the past few years, largely due to the strong growth in three industries: Health Care and Social Assistance (HCSA), Leisure and Hospitality (LH), and Government (G). However, while the level of payroll employment surpassed prepandemic levels, a gap of approximately 3.4 million remains between these levels and the level of employment that would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Using data on vacancies and vacancy yields, we estimate that HCSA and G are quickly approaching their prepandemic trend trajectories. LH, however, is not on track to catch up anytime soon. These results suggest that growth in the labor market, and support from these key industries, may be slowing but should continue to be solid in the near future.

Keywords: trend employment; industry employment; labor market;

JEL Classification: E24; J21;

https://doi.org/10.29338/ph2024-08