Journal Article
Was job quality “job one” in the tri-state region’s economic recovery?
Mester, Loretta J.; Olney, William (2004-12)
Employment growth has been the most hesitant part of this recovery. Labor markets have been weaker for longer in this recovery than in the other postwar recoveries, even the so-called ?jobless recovery? of 1991-92, at least by some measures.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Revisions to nonfarm payroll employment: 1964 to 2011
Stark, Tom (2011-12)
Over recent months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revised upward its initial estimates of the monthly change in nonfarm payroll employment. Similar positive revisions occurred to the initial estimates for September 2010 through February 2011. Moreover, upward revisions to initial estimates also occurred in the immediate months following the most recent NBER business-cycle trough of June 2009. This pattern of positive revisions suggests that the BLS might be having trouble pinning down initial estimates of job gains in the early stages of an expansion. It also cautions us against ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Dec

Journal Article
House price indexes: methodology and revisions
Silverstein, Joseph M. (2014-06)
Accurate measurements of house prices are important for a number of reasons. Housing is usually the most important investment a household ever makes, and home equity is typically the largest component of household wealth. In addition, housing is an important source of collateral for household borrowing, and, as we have seen, its value can be subject to considerable fluctuation. Also, research has shown that having a mortgage that is larger than the value of the underlying house is associated with an elevated risk of default.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Real GDP in annual revisions to the U.S. National accounts: 1966-2011
Stark, Tom (2011-08)
On July 29, 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a flexible annual revision to the U.S. national income and product accounts. Real GDP growth was subject to large downward revisions. I use the Philadelphia Fed's real-time data set to compare the size of the recent revision with that of past annual revisions since 1966.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Aug

Journal Article
Recession dating and real-time data
Price, Calvin (2008-06)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jun

Journal Article
The effectiveness of the state coincident indexes
Novak, Jason A. (2013-01)
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has produced state coincident indexes since 2005. These indexes are monthly indicators of economic activity for each of the 50 U.S. states, based on a composite of four widely available data series on state conditions: total nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and real wages and salary disbursements.
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jan

Journal Article
Budget gaps and balanced-budget proposals in Third District states
Flora, Paul R. (2010-06)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jun

Journal Article
Marking NBER recessions with state data
Novak, Jason A. (2008-04)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Apr

Journal Article
Real-time performance of GDPplus and alternative model-based measures of GDP: 2005—2014
Stark, Tom (2014-11)
Like most macroeconomic variables, real gross domestic product is subject to measurement error. Because the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis lacks complete information at the time it publishes its initial GDP estimates, revisions are often substantial. Analysts concerned about the accuracy of these early estimates for expenditure GDP could focus instead on gross domestic income, the BEA?s measure of U.S. output on the income side of the national accounts. Conceptually, GDP on the expenditure side should equal GDP on the income side, and there should be no choice to make between the two ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Industry concentration in tri-state metropolitan areas
Schiller, Timothy G. (2008-04)
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Apr