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Journal Article
France sliding into recession as new government takes power
Journal Article
Reflections on the international monetary crisis
Journal Article
The lesson of Poincaré
Working Paper
Emigration during the French Revolution: Consequences in the Short and Longue Durée
During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 individuals, predominantly supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. As a result, some areas experienced a significant change in the composition of the local elites whereas in others the pre-revolutionary social structure remained virtually intact. In this study, we trace the consequences of the migrs flight on economic performance at the local level. We instrument emigration intensity with local temperature shocks during an inflection point of the Revolution, the summer of 1792, marked by the abolition of the constitutional monarchy and bouts ...
Journal Article
The effectiveness of tax amnesty programs in selected countries
Conference Paper
Interest rate operating procedures of foreign central banks
Monograph
The credit slowdown abroad
Working Paper
Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland
This article deals with using panel data to infer regime changes that are common to all of the cross section. The methods presented here apply to Markov switching vector autoregressions, dynamic factor models with Markov switching and other multivariate Markov switching models. The key feature we seek to add to these models is to permit cross-sectional units to have different weights in the calculation of regime probabilities. We apply our approach to estimating a business cycle chronology for the 50 U.S. States and the Euro area, and we compare results between country-specific weights and ...