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Journal Article
Japan's recessions
Journal Article
Pegging and stabilization policy in developing countries
I review the case for pegging the exchange rate by surveying the recent theoretical literature on the choice of exchange rate regimes. This literature suggests that by enhancing the transparency or controllability of monetary policy, pegging may be more effective in lowering inflation expectations than other targets (such as money growth). However, under certain conditions a peg may be vulnerable to shifts in expectations. A peg also may require greater fiscal restraint by limiting the availability of inflation tax revenue; however, given certain economic distortions, policymakers may find ...
Journal Article
Financial crises in emerging markets
This Economic Letter briefly reviews 11 papers that provide analytical perspectives and new empirical evidence on the causes of these crises as well as the appropriate policy responses. These papers, prepared for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco?s Center for Pacific Basin Monetary and Economic Studies, have been collected in Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (edited by R. Glick, R. Moreno, and M. Spiegel), published in 2001 by Cambridge University Press.
Journal Article
Macroeconomic shocks and business cycles in Australia
A small vector autoregression model is estimated to assess how demand and supply shocks influence Australian output and price behavior. The model is identified by assuming that aggregate demand shocks have transitory effects on output, while aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects. The paper describes how Australian macroeconomic variables respond to demand and supply shocks in the short run and in the long run. It also finds that demand shocks are dominant in determining fluctuations in Australian output at a one-quarter horizon, but supply shocks assume the larger role at longer ...
Journal Article
Lessons from Thailand
Working Paper
Location and the growth of nations
Does a country's (long-term) growth depend upon what happens in countries that are nearby? Such linkages could occur for a variety of reasons, including demand and technology spillovers. We present a series of tests to determine the existence of such relationships and the forms that they might take. We find that a country's growth rate is closely related to that of nearby countries, and show that this correlation reflects more that the existence of common shocks. Trade alone does not appear responsible for these linkages either. In addition, we find that being near a large market ...
Working Paper
Common shocks and currency crises
This paper attempts to determine the extent to which common external shocks explain simultaneous currency crises. We define crises on a country by country basis using a new criterion that takes into account variations in the volatility of exchange rates over time and across countries. Using a Poisson regression model, we find that over the post-Bretton woods period, a small number of common external shocks can explain between sixty to eighty percent of the variation in the total number of crises over time, depending upon the set of countries one looks at. Our findings provide one explanation ...