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Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-03-24)
Some jobs certainly require more close interaction with other folks than other jobs. Which occupations are the most interactive, and which states have higher shares of these jobs?
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Allocation of Immigrant Talent: Macroeconomic Implications for the U.S. and Across Countries
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Leibovici, Fernando (2022-06)
We quantify the barriers to the economic integration of immigrants using an occupational choice model with natives and immigrants of multiple types subject to wedges that distort their allocations. We show that key parameters, including wedges, can be estimated to match the distribution of employment and earnings across individuals and occupations. We find sizable output gains from removing immigrant wedges in the U.S., accounting for 7 percent of immigrants’ overall economic contribution. These gains arise from increased labor force participation and from reallocation from manual toward ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-004

Journal Article
Trade Adjusts Gradually After Trade Liberalization
Leibovici, Fernando; Crews, Jonas C. (2018)
In recent years, the impact of international trade liberalization on economic outcomes such as output, investment, and employment has been at the forefront of political and economic discussions.
Economic Synopses , Issue 1 , Pages 1-2

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
Leibovici, Fernando; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2024-02-26)
We explore the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to produce in-sample conditional inflation forecasts during the 2019-2023 period. We use a leading LLM (Google AI's PaLM) to produce distributions of conditional forecasts at different horizons and compare these forecasts to those of a leading source, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We find that LLM forecasts generate lower mean-squared errors overall in most years, and at almost all horizons. LLM forecasts exhibit slower reversion to the 2% inflation anchor.
Working Papers , Paper 2023-015

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Supply Chain Disruptions and Inventory Dynamics
Dunn, Jason; Leibovici, Fernando (2023-08-07)
Firms appear to have moved away from a just-in-time inventory model to one that prioritizes resilience, as reflected in high levels of inventory holdings of intermediate inputs.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
Leibovici, Fernando; Famiglietti, Matthew (2021-04)
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity during 2020 in the U.S. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-005

Journal Article
US Barriers to International Trade of Goods: Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures
Leibovici, Fernando; Dunn, Jason (2023-04-28)
US imports are obstructed by both tariffs and non-tariff measures, which vary significantly across industries.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2
Famiglietti, Matthew; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-07-02)
Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.
Economic Synopses , Issue 15 , Pages 1-3

Working Paper
International Trade Policy During a Pandemic
Santacreu, Ana Maria; Leibovici, Fernando (2021-09)
This paper studies international trade policy during a pandemic. We consider a multi-sector small open economy model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level along with higher import and export prices of these goods. The economy produces domestic varieties of both types of goods subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We find that trade provides limited relief to the increased demand for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

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