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Journal Article
The macroeconomy of the U.S. states: on the road to recovery?
Garriga, Carlos (2013)
Despite the recent recovery in house prices, most state economies have yet to recover from the Great Recession.
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model
Kydland, Finn E.; Šustek, Roman; Garriga, Carlos (2019-10-25)
We propose a tractable framework for monetary policy analysis in which both short- and long-term debt affect equilibrium outcomes. This objective is motivated by observations from two literatures suggesting that monetary policy contains a dimension affecting expected future interest rates and thus the costs of long-term financing. In New-Keynesian models, however, long-term loans are redundant assets. We use the model to address three questions: what are the effects of statement vs. action policy shocks; how important are standard New- Keynesian vs. cash flow effects in their transmission; ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-32

Working Paper
The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice
Chambers, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos; Schlagenhauf, Don E. (2009)
The objective of this paper is to understand how loan structure affects (i) the borrower?s selection of a mortgage contract and (ii) the aggregate economy. We develop a quantitative equilibrium theory of mortgage choice where households can choose from a menu of long-term (nominal) mortgage loans. The model accounts for observed patterns in housing consumption, ownership, and portfolio allocations. We find that the loan structure is a quantitatively significant factor in a household?s housing finance decision. The model suggests that the mortgage structure preferred by a household is ...
Working Papers , Paper 2008-024

Journal Article
Inflation, Part 2: How Do We Construct and Choose an Index?
Garriga, Carlos; Werner, Devin (2022-06-22)
Both the CPI and the PCE price indexes measure the prices of consumer goods and services— but they differ in important ways.
Economic Synopses , Issue 16 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Mortgage innovation, mortgage choice, and housing decisions
Chambers, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos; Schlagenhauf, Don E. (2008-11)
This paper examines some of the more recent mortgage products now available to borrowers. The authors describe how these products differ across important characteristics, such as the down payment requirement, repayment structure, and amortization schedule. The paper also presents a model with the potential to analyze the implications for various mortgage contracts for individual households, as well as to address many current housing market issues. In this paper, the authors use the model to examine the implications of alternative mortgages for homeownership. The authors use the model to show ...
Review , Volume 90 , Issue Nov , Pages 585-608

Working Paper
Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession
Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron (2017-10-01)
Using a model with housing search, endogenous credit constraints, and mortgage default, this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross-sectional consumption during the Great Recession. Left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers. An endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures, contracting credit, and depressing consumption. Balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-30

Journal Article
Inflation, Part 1: What Is it, Exactly?
Garriga, Carlos; Werner, Devin (2022-06-21)
Inflation measures the rate of change of a price index over time.
Economic Synopses , Issue 15 , Pages 1-3

Working Paper
Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons
Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron (2019-04-18)
The global financial crisis of the past decade has shaken the research and policy worlds out of their belief that housing markets are mostly benign and immaterial for understanding economic cycles. Instead, a growing consensus recognizes the central role that housing plays in shaping economic activity, particularly during large boom and bust episodes. This article discusses the latest research regarding the causes, consequences, and policy implications of housing crises with a broad focus that includes empirical and structural analysis, insights from the 2000's experience in the United ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-33

Working Paper
Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life
Sanghi, Siddhartha; Garriga, Carlos; Manuelli, Rodolfo E. (2022-02-24)
This paper analyzes the optimal management of a pandemic (stay-at-home and vaccination policies) in a dynamic model. The optimal lockdown policies respond to the spread of the virus with significant restrictions to employment, followed by partial loosening before the peak of the epidemic. Upon the availability of a vaccine, the optimal vaccination policy has an almost bang-bang property, despite the loss of immunity of the vaccinated: vaccinate at the highest possible rate, and then rapidly converge to the steady state. The model illustrates interesting trade-offs as it implies that lower ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-046

America Underbuilt Inc.: The Supply Side of the U.S. Housing Challenge
García, Manu; Garriga, Carlos (2026-04-08)
This analysis finds that the U.S. has underbuilt housing for decades. The persistent supply shortfall amid growing demand drives today’s affordability crisis.
On the Economy

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