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Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
China?s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China?s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for ...
Working Paper
The great housing boom of China
China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
Journal Article
The KC Fed LMCI Momentum Indicator Suggests Monetary Policy Is Beginning to Weigh on Labor Markets
The Federal Open Market Committee has been quickly raising the federal funds rate to lower inflation. However, services inflation remains high, supported by a tight labor market with high wage growth. Recent readings in the LMCI momentum indicator suggest monetary policy tightening is beginning to weigh on labor markets, which may eventually lead to lower services inflation and lower inflation overall.