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Working Paper
Job Polarization and the Natural Rate of Unemployment in the United States
Tuzemen, Didem (2018-03-15)
I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994-2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and currently stands at 4.5 percent. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-3

Working Paper
Revisiting Capital-Skill Complementarity, Inequality, and Labor Share
Orak, Musa; Shen, Shihan; Ohanian, Lee E. (2021-05-19)
This paper revisits capital-skill complementarity and inequality, as in Krusell, Ohanian, Rios-Rull and Violante (KORV, 2000). Using their methodology, we study how well the KORV model accounts for more recent data, including the large changes in the labor's share of income that were not present in KORV. We study both labor share of gross income (as in KORV), and income net of depreciation. We also use nonfarm business sector output as an alternative measure of production to real GDP. We find strong evidence for continued capital-skill complementarity in the most recent data, and we also find ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1319

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2023-09-13)
This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Journal Article
How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?
Webb, Anthony; Owyang, Michael T.; Sun, Wei; Friedberg, Leora (2017)
Compared with prime-age workers, older workers face an easier path out of the labor force if they lose their jobs during a recession. However, premature job exits or earnings losses in the years leading up to retirement may be particularly devastating to retirement savings. The authors analyze the impact of recent business cycles on retirement using multifaceted job transitions of older workers. They focus on local labor markets because older workers are particularly unlikely to move for work. Surprisingly, the biggest effect of a higher local unemployment rate on older workers is to raise ...
Review , Volume 99 , Issue 3 , Pages 259-78

Working Paper
Employer Wage Subsidy Caps and Part-Time Work
Elvery, Joel; Rohlin, Shawn M.; Reynolds, C. Lockwood (2021-01-06)
Hiring credits and employer wage subsidies are tools that policymakers have available to attempt to improve labor market conditions for workers. This study explores how capped-wage subsidies affect firms’ labor market decisions, in particular, their reliance on part-time and low-skill workers. We focus on the federal Empowerment Zone program, which offers firms in targeted areas a 20 percent wage subsidy (capped at $3,000 per year) for each employee who also resides in the Empowerment Zone. Results using different methods of identification suggest that firms respond to capped-wage subsidies ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-01

Working Paper
Entrepreneurship and State Taxation
Decker, Ryan A.; Curtis, E. Mark (2018-01-11)
Entrepreneurship plays a vital role in the economy, yet there exists little well-identified research into the effects of taxes on startup activity. Using recently developed county-level data on startups, we examine the effect of states' corporate, personal and sales tax rates on new firm activity and test for cross-border spillovers in response to these policies. We find that new firm employment is negatively?and disproportionately?affected by corporate tax rates. We find little evidence of an effect of personal and sales taxes on entrepreneurial outcomes. Our results are robust to changes in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-003

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Credit Survey
de Zeeuw, Mels; Terry, Ellie (2018-08-21)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation. {{p}} The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-1

Working Paper
Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle
Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel; Ballance, Joshua (2016-02-29)
Using a novel database of 82.5 million online job postings, we show that employer skill requirements fell as the labor market improved from 2010 to 2014. We find that a 1 percentage point reduction in the local unemployment rate is associated with a roughly 0.27 percentage point reduction in the fraction of jobs requiring at least a bachelor?s degree and a roughly 0.23 percentage point reduction in the fraction requiring five or more years of experience. This pattern is established using multiple measures of labor availability, is bolstered by similar trends along heretofore unmeasured ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-9

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2023-02-17)
This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Report
Mismatch unemployment
Topa, Giorgio; Song, Joseph; Violante, Giovanni L.; Sahin, Aysegul (2012)
We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies: JOLTS and HWOL (a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements). Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate. Geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 566

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