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**228**Gender differences in family effects on human capital and earnings: an empirical study of siblings*by David Neumark***227**Employers' discriminatory behavior and the estimation of wage discrimination*by David Neumark***226**Duration analysis of birth intervals and underlying fertility behavior*by David Neumark***225**Finite sample properties of Theil's measure of multicollinearity effect*by J. S. Mehta & P. A. V. B. Swamy***224**Deviations from random-walk behavior: tests based on the variance-time function*by Francis X. Diebold***223**Does the business cycle have duration memory?*by Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch***222**Financial deregulation, the demand for money, and monetary policy in Australia*by George S. Tavlas & P. A. V. B. Swamy***221**Asymmetric information, bank lending, and implicit contracts: a stylized model of continuing relationships*by Steven A. Sharpe***219**The behavior of short-term interest rates in a rational banking model*by Kenneth J. Kopecky***218**The use of prior information in forecast combination*by Francis X. Diebold & Peter Pauly***217**Econometric modeling of the demands for the U.S. monetary aggregates: conventional and experimental approaches*by Richard D. Porter & Paul A. Spindt & David E. Lindsey***216**The forecasting accuracy of auto assembly schedules*by Spencer D. Krane & David L. Reifschneider***215**On the supply of the demand for money*by Paul A. Spindt***214**The micromechanics of the federal funds market: implications for day- of- the-week effects in fund rate variability*by Paul A. Spindt & J. Ronald Hoffmeister***213**Should fixed coefficients be reestimated every period*by P. A. V. B. Swamy & Garry J. Schinasi***212**The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change*by Garry J. Schinasi & P. A. V. B. Swamy***211**Further thoughts on testing for casuality with econometric models*by P. A. V. B. Swamy & Peter von zur Muehlen***210**The FRB monthly forecasting model: its special features and simulation properties (PAPER NEVER PUBLISHED)*by Carol Corrado & Jane Haltmaier & David L. Reifschneider***208**Minimum variance pooling of forecasts at different levels of aggregation*by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Jane Haltmaier***206**Scoring the leading indicators*by Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch***203**Price rigidity in imperfectly competitive markets: a survey of theoretical approaches*by Steven A. Sharpe*

**220**Induced innovation and productivity growth: an empirical analysis*by Jane Haltmaier***209**Reducing uncertainty in current analysis and projections: the estimation of monthly GNP*by Carol Corrado***205**The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model*by Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove***204**On the information content of consumer survey expectations*by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer***202**Experience goods, customer loyalty, and sticky prices in a dynamic market*by Steven A. Sharpe***201**Structural change and the combination of forecasts*by Francis X. Diebold & Peter Pauly***200**Temporal aggregation of ARCH processes and the distribution of asset returns*by Francis X. Diebold***199**Internal funds and the investment functions: exploring the theoretical justification of some empirical results*by Guy V. G. Stevens***198**Calendar adjustment and time series*by William P. Cleveland***197**Availability of data, sensitivity of calculation and possible improvements in data collection for the MSI, MT and MQ indexes*by Arthur B. Kennickell & Garland B. DeMarco***196**Forecasting money demand with econometric models*by P.A.V.B Swamy & A.B. Kennickell & P. von zur Muehlen***195**An evaluation of monetary indexes*by David E. Lindsey & Paul Spindt***194**Model uncertainty, expectation formation and shock persistence*by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer***193**A production smoothing model of aggregate inventory behavior with expectation errors generated by model uncertainty*by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer***192**Information gathering and expectation formation under model uncertainty*by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer*

**191**Empirical assessments of the efficient markets hypothesis: an operational-subjective analysis of the variance bounds approach*by Frank Lad***190**A pair of papers: random coefficients ; Random coefficients ; Productivity analysis of the United States manufacturing using*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & G.V.L. Narasimham & R.C. Reed***189**Revisions in the monetary services (Divisia) indexes of monetary aggregates*by Helen T. Farr & Deborah Johnson***188**On a neglected measure of multicollinearity*by P.A. V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta***164**On concurrent seasonal adjustment*by David A. Pierce & Sandra K. McKenzie*

**207**Reducing uncertainty in short-term projections: linkage of monthly and quarterly models*by Carol Corrado & Mark Greene***187**Estimating distributed lag relationships using near-minimax procedures*by A.K. Kashyap & P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta & R.D. Porter***186**The Federal Reserve's new operating procedures: a post mortem*by Paul A. Spindt & Vefa Tarhan***185**An examination of distributed lag model coefficients estimated with smoothness priors*by S.S. Thurman & P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta***184**The transmission of data noise into policy noise in monetary control*by Agustin Maravall & David A. Pierce***183**Forecasting and seasonal adjustment: retrospect and prospect (panel discussion)*by David A. Pierce***182**The foundations of econometrics: are there any?*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & Roger K. Conway & Peter von zur Muehlen*

**181**Empirical comparisons of credit and monetary aggregates using vector autoregression methods*by Edward K. Offenbacher & Richard D. Porter***180**On logical validity and econometric modelling: the case of money supply*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & P. von zur Muehlen & P.A. Tinsley & H.T. Farr***179**Bank reserve adjustment process and the use of reserve carryover as a reserve management tool: a microeconometric approach*by Paul A. Spindt & Vefa Tarhan***178**The impossibility of causality testing*by Roger K. Conway & P.A.V.B. Swamy & John F. Yanagida***177**Money is what money does: a revealed production approach to monetary aggregation*by Paul A. Spindt***176**Notes on the cost of capital*by William Conrad***166**The Anderson-Rasche report: a review of the review*by Helen T. Farr & Richard D. Porter*

**175**Reserve accounting regimes, bank behavior and monetary control: an empirical analysis*by P.A. Spindt & V. Tarhan***174**Further results on Zellner's minimum expected loss (MELO) and full information maximum likelihood estimators for undersized samples*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta***173**Convergence of the moments of the modified K-class estimators*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta & N.S. Iyengar***172**Monetary policy and the information content of index bond prices*by John F. Boschen***171**A multiplier model for controlling Divisia monetary aggregates*by Paul A. Spindt***170**Fixed vs market-determined deposit rates: a new monetary framework*by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis***169**The short-run volatility of money stock targeting*by P.A. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen & G. Fries***168**A maximum probability approach to short-run policy*by P. Tinsley & P. von zur Muehlen***167**An autopsy of a conventional macroeconomic relation: the case of money demand*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & P.A. Tinsley & G.R. Moore***165**Detecting and estimating changing economic relationships: the case of discount window borrowings*by D.H. Resler & J.R. Barth & P.A.V.B. Swamy & W.D. Davis*

**184**The Regulation Q phaseout: the effects on monetary aggregates, on interest rates, and on the economy*by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis***163**Intervention analysis and seasonal adjustment of the monetary aggregates: the 1980 credit controls experience*by David A. Pierce & William P. Cleveland***162**Modeling time series when calendar effects are present*by W.P. Cleveland & M.R. Grupe***161**The phaseout of deposit-rate ceilings and the efficacy of monetary policy*by Garry J. Schinasi***160**Price, wage and inventory dynamics of a non-Walrasian firm*by Raghbendra Jha & Garry J. Schinasi***159**Price, inventory dynamics of a Phelps-Winter type firm*by R. Jha & G. J. Schinasi***158**Empirical comparisons of Divisia and simple sum monetary aggregates*by William A. Barnett & Paul A. Spindt & Edward K. Offenbacher***157**Discussion of money demand papers at Washington University Workshop*by Edward K. Offenbacher***156**Estimating current trend and growth rates in seasonal time series*by George E.P. Box & David A. Pierce***155**The effects of NOW accounts on monetary aggregates, interest rates and the economy: some theoretical and early empirical results*by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis***154**A generalized multicollinearity index for estimation*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta & S.S. Thurman***153**Uncertainty in the money aggregates: sources, measurement and policy effects*by David A. Pierce & Darrel W. Parke & William P. Cleveland & Agustin Maravall***150**Precision of monetary control and volatility of rates: a comparative analysis of the reserves and the federal funds operating targets*by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis***147**Expectations of the "myopic perfect foresight" variety in monetary dynamics*by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis*

**152**Errors in preliminary money stock data and monetary aggregate targeting*by Agustin Maravall & David A. Pierce***151**Sources of error in economic time series*by David A. Pierce***149**A theory of monetary exchange*by Alfred L. Norman***146**The information content of Divisia monetary quantity indices*by William A. Barnett & Paul A. Spindt***145**The Rose-Wicksell model: inside money, stability and stabilization policies*by Michael G. Hadjimichalakis.***144**Disaggregated monetary asset demand systems: estimation and an application of the preference independence transformation*by Edward K. Offenbacher***143**The rational expectations approach to economic modelling*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.R. Barth & P.A. Tinsley***142**A non-Bayesian method of estimating distributed lag coefficients with smoothness priors*by S.S. Thurman & P.A.V.B. Swamy***141**The velocity behavior and information content of Divisia monetary aggregates*by W.A. Barnett & P.A. Spindt***140**Indicator and filter attributes of monetary aggregates: a nit-picking case for disaggregation*by P.A. Tinsley & P.A. Spindt & M.E. Friar***139**The microfoundations of aggregate supply: wage, price, unemployment dynamics and the natural rate hypothesis*by Garry J. Schinasi & Raghbendra Jha***138**The cost of adjustment and the microfoundations of the Kaldor nonlinear investment function*by Garry J. Schinasi*

**137**Data revisions with moving average seasonal adjustment procedures*by David A. Pierce***136**Ridge regression estimation of the Rotterdam model*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta***135**A note on modelling downturns: a nonlinear model vs. simple linear autoregressive schemes*by Garry J. Schinasi***134**Target controllability*by A.L. Norman & Woo S. Jung***132**A fully nested system of monetary quantity and dual user cost aggregates*by William A. Barnett***131**Monopolistic competition and sequential search*by Peter von zur Muehlen***130**On the existence of moments of partially restricted reduced form coefficients*by P.A.V.B. Swamy & J.S. Mehta***129**Seasonal adjustment of daily data with special reference to the U.S. money supply*by David A. Pierce & Gerhard Fries***127**Estimation of implicit utility models*by William A. Barnett & Kenneth J. Kopecky & Ryuzo Sato***126**A comparison of estimators for undersized samples*by P.A.V.B. Swamy*

**133**The measurement of money demand*by P.A. Tinsley & Bonnie Garrett & M.E. Friar***128**A survey of recent developments in seasonal adjustment*by David A. Pierce***125**Applications of the Kalman filter to revisions in monthly retail sales estimates*by William Conrad & Carol Corrado***124**A random coefficient approach to seasonal adjustment of economic time series*by A. Havenner & P.A.V.B. Swamy***123**Unemployment spells and unemployment experience*by George A. Akerlof & Brian G. M. Main***122**Irving Fisher on his head II: the consequences of the timing of payments for the demand for money*by George A. Akerlof & Ross D. Milbourne***121**The liquidity structure adjustment decision of large money center banks*by Paul Spindt & Vefa Tarhan***120**Seasonally adjusted rates of growth versus rates of growth of seasonally adjusted levels: some implications for monetary control*by Agustin Maravall***119**Short-run forecasting and seasonal adjustment of demand deposits via sectoral disaggregation by types of holders*by Agustin Maravall***118**A theory of social custom, of which unemployment may be one consequence*by George A. Akerlof***117**The sensitivity of monetarist conclusions to monetarist assumptions: constant lag versus constant target-threshold monitoring*by George A. Akerlof & Ross D. Milbourne***116**A theory of involuntary unemployment*by George Akerlof***115**A theory of competitive equilibrium in stock market economies*by Sanford Grossman & Oliver Hart***114**Further results on the informational efficiency of competitive stock markets*by Sanford Grossman***113**The public good is a public good: a theory of corporations*by Sanford Grossman & Oliver Hart***112**Signal extraction error in nonstationary time series*by David A. Pierce***111**On estimating the fundamental dynamic equations of structural econometric models*by David A. Pierce & John M. Mason***110**Indexing the U.S. economy: simulation results with the MPS model*by Mark J. Flannery & Lewis Johnson***109**Pollak and Wachter on the household production function approach*by William A. Barnett***108**On filtering auxiliary information in short-run monetary policy*by John H. Kalchbrenner & Peter A. Tinsley & James Berry & Bonnie Garrett***107**Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present*by David A. Pierce***106**Rational expectations and multiple equilibria: love, faith, money and underemployment*by Steven C. Salop***105**Coefficient uncertainty and policy aggressiveness: an empirical assessment*by Roger Craine & Arthur Havenner***104**The implications of removing the demand deposit rate prohibition for monetary control and the conduct of monetary policy*by David E. Lindsey***103**Determining the monetary instrument: a diagrammatic exposition*by Stephen F. LeRoy & David E. Lindsey*

**102**Customer relationships and terms of loans: evidence from a pilot survey*by Donald D. Hester***101**Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty*by Roger Craine & Arthur Havenner***100**The optimal monetary instrument: an empirical assessment*by Roger Craine & Arthur Havenner***99**Dynamic portfolio behavior and market clearing by weekly reporting banks*by Donald Hester***98**Optimal bands in short-run monetary policy*by Peter von zur Muehlen***97**Some partial equilibrium of tax reform on corporate policy*by Peter von zur Muehlen***96**Legal reserve requirements: an instrument of monetary control?*by Daniel E. Laufenberg***95**A framework for analyzing monopolistically competitive price dispersion*by Steven C. Salop & Joseph E. Stiglitz***94**Bargains and ripoffs: a model of monopolistically competitive price dispersion*by Steven C. Salop & Joseph E. Stiglitz***93**R2 measures for time series*by David A. Pierce***92**On modeling unobserved components with time series*by Agustin Maravall***91**The use of undersized samples in the estimation of simultaneous equation systems: another look at the theory of estimation*by P. A. V. B. Swamy***90**The natural rate of unemployment and the reserve army of the unemployed*by Steven C. Salop***89**Monopolistic competition reconstituted; or, circular fashions in economic thought*by Steven C. Salop***88**A note on minimum average risk estimators for coefficients in linear models*by P. A. V. B. Swamy & J. S. Mehta***87**Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey*by David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh*

**86**A weekly money market model*by Helen T. Farr & Steven M. Roberts & Thomas D. Thompson***85**Estimation of the permanent and transitory component of an economic variable with an application to M1*by Agustin Maravall***84**Recursive subaggregation and a generalized hypocycloidal demand model*by William A. Barnett***83**Optimal control of a macroeconomic model with estimated coefficients*by Roger Craine & Arthur M. Havenner***82**The restrictiveness of the Rotterdam model: a recalcitrant myth*by William A. Barnett***81**Anticipating a price freeze or how not to get caught with your prices down*by Peter von zur Muehlen***80**Self-selection and turnover in the labor market*by Joanne Salop & Steven C. Salop***79**Public goods, taxation, and the distribution of income over time*by Winston C. Bush & Robert J. Mackay***78**Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients*by P. A. V. B. Swamy & Peter A. Tinsley***77**On the rationality of discontinuous monetary policy*by Peter von zur Muehlen***76**On the use of optimal control in the design of monetary policy*by John H. Kalchbrenner & Peter A. Tinsley***75**The noisy monopolist: imperfect information, price dispersion and price discrimination*by Steven C. Salop***74**Information and monopolistic competition*by Steven C. Salop***73**Consumer behavior and quantity constraints: some implications for monetary theory*by Robert J. Mackay & Warren E. Weber*

**75**Observability, measurement error, and the optimal use of information for monetary policy*by Stephen F. LeRoy & Roger N. Waud***71**The existence of moments of some simple Bayes estimators of coefficients in a simultaneous equation model*by J. S. Mehta & P. A. V. B. Swamy***70**Further evidence on the relative efficiencies of Zellner's seemingly unrelated regressions estimator*by J. S. Mehta & P. A. V. B. Swamy***69**Relative efficiencies of a competitor of Hoerl and Kennard's ridge regression estimator*by P. A. V. B. Swamy & J. S. Mehta & Peter Rappoport***68**Minimum average risk estimators for coefficients in linear models*by P. A. V. B. Swamy & J. S. Mehta***67**Information lags and the interest rate as a proximate monetary policy target*by Roger N. Waud***66**Efficient use of current information in short-run monetary control*by Stephen F. LeRoy***65**Multiple time series containing unobserved components*by Richard D. Porter***64**On Keynesian dynamics*by Lewis Johnson***63**MINNIE: a small version of the MIT-PENN-SSRC econometric model*by Douglas Battenberg & Jared J. Enzler & Arthur M. Havenner***62**Consistent estimation of higher order adjustment and expectations models: estimation of rational lags by initial condition parameterization*by Arthur M. Havenner***61**A re-examination of Keynesian monetary and fiscal orthodoxy in a two- sector Keynesian paradigm*by Robert J. Mackay & Roger N. Waud***60**Random sets and the space of confidence procedures*by William A. Barnett***59**On proximate exploitation of intermediate information in macroeconomic forecasting*by Peter A. Tinsley***58**Lagged versus contemporaneous reserve accounting and short-run fluctuations in deposits*by Daniel E. Laufenberg***57**Asymmetric policymaker utility functions and optimal policy under uncertainty*by Roger N. Waud***56**The structural shift in the demand for money*by Myron B. Slovin & Marie Elizabeth Sushka***55**Relationships--and the lack thereof--between economic time series, with special reference to money, reserve, and interest rates*by David A. Pierce***54**Money supply control: reserves as the instrument under lagged accounting*by David A. Pierce***53**Labor supply and the allocation of consumption expenditure*by William A. Barnett*

**52**The full-employment equivalent price of leisure*by William A. Barnett***51**Household consumption allocation and labor supply*by William A. Barnett***50**Maximum likelihood estimation of nonlinear systems of equations*by William A. Barnett***49**Inflationary expectations and momentary equilibrium*by Lewis Johnson***48**On Nerff solutions of macroeconomic tracking problems*by Peter A. Tinsley & R.Craine & Arthur M. Havenner***47**Linear models and linear filters in the analysis of seasonal variation*by David A. Pierce & Richard D. Porter***46**Uncertainty, restrictions on capital adjustment, and investment*by Roger Craine***45**Note on: "The upward bias in the consumer price index due to substitution"*by John Paulus***44**Evaluating consumer demand models*by John Paulus***43**RPD model of money supply: a dynamic approach*by Daniel E. Laufenberg***42**Search theory and duration data: a theory of sorts*by Stephen W. Salant***41**Monetary and fiscal effects on economic activity: a reduced form examination of their relative importance*by Roger N. Waud***40**Alternative adjustment mechanisms and the long run Phillips relation: job search vs. the "neoclassical" tatonnement*by Lewis Johnson***39**An econometric model of channeled monetary effects on conventional mortgage credit*by Daniel E. Laufenberg*

**38**Interest rate risk protection for savings institutions through debenture sales*by Donald P. Tucker***37**The cost of capital, the desired capital stock, and a variable investment tax credit as a stabilization tool*by Glenn C. Picou & Roger N. Waud***36**On the relationships among monetary aggregates*by Myron B. Slovin***35**Aggregation over time, the supply and demand for money, and monetary policy*by Stanley W. Black***34**When is an indicator a leading indicator?*by David A. Pierce***33**A study of the postwar demand for financial assets*by Kenneth R. Kleefeld***32**Demand analysis and stochastic prior information*by John Paulus*

**31**On the use of survey sample weights in the linear model*by Richard D. Porter***30**Systematic job search and unemployment*by Steven C. Salop***29**Wage differentials in a dynamic theory of the firm*by Steven C. Salop***28**Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-sector aggregative model*by Dale W. Henderson & Thomas J. Sargent***27**Optimal estimation and control: a structural approximation*by Elizabeth Chase MacRae***26**On the value of the firm and optimal investment under uncertainty*by Guy V. G. Stevens***25**Financial adjustment to inflation*by William Poole***24**On Tobin's multiperiod portfolio theorem*by Guy V. G. Stevens*

**23**Price behavior in U.S. manufacturing: an application of dynamic monopoly pricing*by Peter von zur Muehlen***22**N-person dynamic oligopoly: the case of conjectured price variations under certainty*by Peter von zur Muehlen***21**On the optimal monopoly price over time*by Peter von zur Muehlen***20**Matrix derivatives with an application to the analysis of covariance structures*by Elizabeth Chase MacRae***19**Solutions for stochastic cash balance inventory problems using a dynamic programming formulation*by Steven M. Roberts***18**Optimal distributed lag responses and expectations*by Roger Craine***17**Patinkin's macro model as a model of market disequilibrium*by Donald P. Tucker***16**Definitions of money: some theoretical and empirical issues*by Helen T. Farr***15**On ramps, turnpikes, and distributed lag approximations of optimal intertemporal adjustment*by P.A. Tinsley***14**The use of prior information in nonlinear regression*by P.A. Tinsley***13**A stochastic cash balance inventory model with non-zero fixed and proportional transfer costs and proportional opportunity and penalty costs*by Steven M. Roberts.***12**On the service flow from labor*by Roger Craine*

**11**A variable weight distributed lag model*by P.A. Tinsley***10**On distributed lag specifications of optimal factor adjustment paths*by P.A. Tinsley***9**On optimal dynamic adjustment of quasi-fixed factors*by Peter A. Tinsley***8**On the specification of a distributed lag adjustment model*by Roger Craine***7**Capital structure, precautionary balances, and valuation of the firm: the problem of financial risk*by Peter A. Tinsley***6**Chance constrained programming with applications to portfolio problems in commercial banking*by Richard Puckett***5**The application of quadratic programming to the portfolio selection problem: a review*by Robert T. Parry***4**On polynomial approximation of distributed lags*by Peter A. Tinsley***3**A constrained estimation approach to the demand for liquid assets*by Edward M. Gramlich & John H. Kalchbrenner*

**2**Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model*by William Poole***1**Some simple rules for the conduct of monetary policy*by James L. Pierce*