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Monograph
The effect of population aging on aggregate labor supply in the United States
Output growth is determined by growth in labor productivity and growth in labor input. Over the past two decades, technological developments have changed how many economists think about growth in labor productivity. However, in the coming decades, the aging of the population will change how economists think about the growth in labor input in the United States. As the oldest baby boomers born in 1946 turned 50, then 55, and then 60, an important economic change has slowly surfaced: these people have become less likely to participate in the labor force. While this shift was obscured by a labor ...
Monograph
The labor supply of older American men
This chapter summarizes what is known about the labor supply of older American men, defined as those aged 55 years and over. The topic is of great interest because in the coming decades older individuals will comprise a much greater portion of the U.S. population, so the labor supply of older adults will have a significant impact on national output, tax revenues, and the cost of means-tested programs. Most importantly, a greater proportion of older individuals will need to remain in the workforce than is the present case, because the retirement income system is contracting and working longer ...
Monograph
Structural demand shifts and potential labor supply responses in the new century
It is widely recognized that inequality of labor market earnings in the United States grew dramatically in recent decades. Over the course of more than three decades, wage growth was weak to nonexistent at the bottom of the distribution, strong at the top of the distribution, and modest at the middle. While real hourly earnings of workers in the bottom 30 percent of the earnings distribution rose by no more than 10 percentage points, earnings of workers at the 90th percentile rose by more than 40 percentage points. What is much less widely known, however, is that this smooth, monotone growth ...
Monograph
Cyclical movements along the labor supply function
A consensus in macroeconomics holds that the observed higher-frequency movements in employment and hours of work are movements along a labor-supply function caused by shifts of the labor demand function. Recent theoretical thinking has extended this view to include fluctuations in unemployment, so that macroeconomists can speak coherently of movements along an unemployment function caused by shifts in labor demand.
Monograph
Historical beginnings.. the Federal Reserve System
Traces the history of the banking system in the United States from 1789, discusses the banking problems of the 19th century, and describes the legislation that led to the formation of the Federal Reserve System.
Monograph
The seven deadly sins in aging policy and research: a cautionary list for policy makers and prognosticators
Pride, envy, gluttony, lust, anger, greed, and sloth?theologians tell us that we become better people by examining these sources of failure. But my concern here is not with the classic seven deadly sins, but what I feel are the contemporary seven deadly sins being committed in current policy and research on aging. Reflecting on them likewise provides some warning signs for us acting as policymakers, researchers, or prognosticators.
Monograph
Panic of 1907
Bank panics were a regular occurrence in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The failure of one commodity speculator in October 1907 triggered a nationwide bank run. This publication tells how the panic developed, spread, and was resolved. A chronology is included along with a section of newspaper excerpts.
Monograph
U. S. labor supply and demand in the long run
In this paper we model U.S. labor supply and demand in considerable detail in order to capture the enormous heterogeneity of the labor force and its evolution over the next 25 years. We represent labor supplies for a large number of demographic groups as responses to prices of leisure and consumption goods and services. The price of leisure is an after-tax wage rate, while the final prices of goods and services reflect the supply prices of the industries that produce them. By including demographic characteristics among the determinants of household preferences, we incorporate the expected ...