Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
Global Inflation, Regional Factors
Sheremirov, Viacheslav; Stein, Hillary (2025-08-01)
This paper shows that global inflation dynamics have a sizable regional component. Using a balanced panel of 61 countries that starts in 1970, we document that while the global factor, defined as the dominant principal component, explains a large portion of inflation variation in advanced economies, a model with only one principal component is less successful for developing countries. By contrast, a hierarchical dynamic factor model, which includes a global (unconstrained) factor and regional (restricted) factors, performs substantially better for emerging market and developing economies. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-6

Discussion Paper
Oil Prices, Global Demand Expectations, and Near-Term Global Inflation
Groen, Jan J. J.; Noble, Adam I. (2021-10-04)
Oil prices have increased by nearly 60 percent since the summer of 2020, coinciding with an upward trend in global inflation. If higher oil prices are the result of constrained supply, then this could pose some stagflation risks to the growth outlook—a concern reflected in a June Financial Times article, “Why OPEC Matters.” In this post, we utilize the demand and supply decomposition from the New York Fed’s Oil Price Dynamics Report to argue that most of the oil price increase over the past year or so has reflected improving global demand expectations. We then illustrate what these ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211004

Discussion Paper
Globalization, aggregate productivity, and inflation
Cox, W. Michael (2007-03)
This paper investigates the effects of globalization on aggregate productivity, output growth, and inflation. I present a simple two-country, two-good, flexible exchange rate model using Fisher Ideal aggregators to examine changes in the mapping from microeconomic to macroeconomic productivity growth as nations globalize. Advances in industry-specific labor productivity are shown to have potentially a much greater pass-through to aggregate productivity, output, and prices the more open nations are to trade. Globalization raises both the level and growth rate of aggregate productivity by ...
Staff Papers , Issue Mar

Working Paper
Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update
Auer, Raphael; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Schoenle, Raphael (2024-05-20)
Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also remarkably global, with 53% of its variation attributable to a first global factor. The explanatory ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-10

Discussion Paper
Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics
Zeng, William; Nallamotu, Ramya; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Simitian, Greg; Akinci, Ozge; Almuzara, Martín; Sbordone, Argia M. (2025-02-27)
A key feature of the post-pandemic inflation surge was the strong correlation among inflation rates across sectors in the United States. This phenomenon, however, was not confined to the U.S. economy, as similar inflationary pressures have emerged in other advanced economies. As generalized as the inflation surge was, so was its decline from the mid-2022 peak. This post explores the common features of inflation patterns in the U.S. and abroad using an extension of the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) Inflation model, our underlying inflation tracker for the U.S. The Global MCT model purges ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250227a

Working Paper
Some preliminary evidence on the globalization-inflation nexus
Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie; Kharroubi, Enisse (2008)
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. While recent papers have concluded that globalization has had no significant impact, this paper highlights that trying to capture globalization effects through simple measures of import prices and/or imports to GDP ratios can be misleading. To do so, we try to extend the analysis following two different avenues. We first separate between commodity and non-commodity imports and show ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 18

Discussion Paper
Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Inflation Trends
Akinci, Ozge; Almuzara, Martín; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Nallamotu, Ramya; Sbordone, Argia M.; Simitian, Greg; Zeng, William (2025-02-27)
Our previous post identified strong global components in the slow-moving and persistent dynamics of headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. and abroad. We labeled these global components as the Global Inflation Trend (GIT), the Core Goods Global Inflation Trend (CG-GIT) and the Food & Energy Global Inflation Trend (FE-GIT). In this post we offer a narrative of the drivers of these global inflation trends in terms of shocks that induce a trade-off for monetary policy, versus those that do not. We show that most of the surge in the persistent component of inflation across ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250227b

Working Paper
Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis
Kamin, Steven B.; Marquez, Jaime R.; Ihrig, Jane E.; Lindner, Deborah J. (2007)
This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Toward that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for that hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 891

Working Paper
The Globalisation of Inflation: the Growing Importance of Global Value Chains
Auer, Raphael; Filardo, Andrew J.; Borio, Claudio (2017-01-01)
Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the extent to which the growth in GVCs explains the established empirical correlation between global economic slack and national inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 300

Working Paper
Global slack and domestic inflation rates: a structural investigation for G-7 countries
Milani, Fabio (2009)
Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of "global," rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves. This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of global output in determining domestic inflation rates by estimating a structural model for a sample of G-7 economies. The model can capture the potential effects of global output fluctuations on both the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand relations in the economy and it is estimated using ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 33

show more (3)

show more (105)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords