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Discussion Paper
Understanding Workers’ Financial Wellbeing in States with Right-to-Work Laws
Dasgupta, Kabir; Merchant, Zofsha (2023-09-08)
As public interest in labor unions has increased in recent months, along with an increase in union representation petitions, it is valuable to understand the economic implications of labor unions. Previous empirical studies on the effects of labor unions and collective bargaining processes have focused on several economic outcomes ranging from workers' pay and productivity to firms' profitability, investments, and overall economic performance.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-09-08-1

Discussion Paper
Monetary Policy Tightening and Debt Servicing Costs of Nonfinancial Companies
Kitsul, Yuriy; Lang, Bill; Samadi, Mehrdad (2023-12-01)
Rapid monetary policy tightening in most advanced economies in 2022 and 2023 was accompanied by substantial increases in prevailing interest rates for new credit to businesses and households. In addition to increasing the cost of new borrowing, monetary policy tightening may also be associated with increases in costs of servicing existing debt, potentially leading to the tightening of firms' and households' financial constraints, leaving them with less cash for investment and consumption.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-12-01

Discussion Paper
Winners and losers from recent asset price changes
Crawley, Edmund; Gamber, William L. (2023-05-12)
Asset prices and interest rates have changed dramatically and unexpectedly over the last two years as the Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate to combat higher inflation. In this note, we clarify the redistributive effects of these asset price changes in terms of welfare, which contrast sharply with those of wealth. Figure 1 depicts changes in the paths of six macroeconomic aggregates in the February 2023 CBO projection relative to their paths in the July 2021 projection.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-05-12

Discussion Paper
Some Implications of Knightian Uncertainty for Finance and Regulation
Ruffino, Doriana (2014-04-10)
With the recession of 2008, "uncertainty" became a buzzword. Since then, economists have largely shaped how policymakers, politicians, and the general public think about uncertainty, through, among other means, models that explicitly account for uncertainty.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2014-04-10

Discussion Paper
An Analysis of the Interest Rate Risk of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, Part 2: Projections under Alternative Interest Rate Paths
Anderson, Alyssa G.; Marks, Philippa; Na, Dave; Schlusche, Bernd; Senyuz, Zeynep (2022-07-15)
As discussed in the first note of this two-note series, net income of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its remittances to the U.S. Treasury along with the unrealized gain or loss position of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio are affected by fluctuations in interest rates. The need for the Fed to increase the policy rate expeditiously to address the inflationary pressures is projected to result in the Fed's net income turning negative temporarily.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2022-07-15-3

Discussion Paper
The Effect of Mortgage Forbearance on House Prices During COVID-19
Anenberg, Elliot; Scharlemann, Tess C. (2021-03-19)
The contrast between the labor market and house prices during the pandemic has been stark. In this note, we document a strong positive relationship between forbearance takeup and house price growth at the county level, controlling for the unemployment rate and other factors.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-03-19-2

Discussion Paper
Assessing the Extent of Trade Fragmentation
Pierce, Justin R.; Yu, David (2023-11-03)
Globalization increased steadily for decades following the end of World War II, with trade as a percentage of global GDP rising from 20 percent in the early post-war period to nearly 60 percent just before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (Aiyar et al., 2023). Since the GFC, however, this move toward globalization has stalled, and recent events—U.S.-China trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine—have raised the prospect of a reversal.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2023-11-03

Discussion Paper
Low Inflation in the United States : A Summary of Recent Research
Kiley, Michael T. (2015-11-23)
Inflation in the United States has been running at low levels. Over the five years ending in December 2014, the percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 8.8 percent (or 1.7 percent at an annual rate), was the lowest rate of price increase seen in the United States in half a century.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2015-11-23

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