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Discussion Paper
Measuring Price Inflation and Growth in Economic Well-Being with Income-Dependent Preferences
Lashkari, Danial (2024-01-08)
How can we accurately measure changes in living standards over time in the presence of price inflation? In this post, I discuss a novel and simple methodology that uses the cross-sectional relationship between income and household-level inflation to construct accurate measures of changes in living standards that account for the dependence of consumption preferences on income. Applying this method to data from the U.S. suggests potentially substantial mismeasurements in our available proxies of average growth in consumer welfare in the U.S.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240108

Working Paper
No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, and Financial Development
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2022-03)
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing import tariffs on capital and intermediate inputs. We document that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower aggregate response following trade liberalization. We set up a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to collateral constraints and estimate it to match salient features from Colombian plant-level data. Our model explains a substantial fraction of the differences in the empirical responses of GDP, consumption, and capital across economies with ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-038

Journal Article
Welfare reform and the cyclicality of welfare programs
Powers, Elizabeth T. (1996-06)
An examination of how potential welfare recipients would be affected by reform proposals calling for a reduction in benefits and a shift in fiscal responsibility from the federal government to the states, with emphasis on the sometimes substantial impact of business cycle swings on welfare caseloads and expenditures.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Working Paper
Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration Under Model Uncertainty
Luo, Yulei; Young, Eric R.; Nie, Jun (2018-12-07)
We build a robustness (RB) version of the Obstfeld (1994) model to study the effects of financial integration on growth and welfare. Our model can account for the empirically observed heterogeneity in the relationship between growth and volatility for different countries. The calibrated model shows that financial integration leads to significantly larger gains in growth and welfare for advanced countries than developing countries, with some developing countries experiencing growth and welfare loss in financial integration. Our analytical solutions help uncover the key mechanisms by which this ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-12

Working Paper
No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, and Financial Development
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2020-12)
We study the role of financial development on the aggregate and welfare implications of reducing trade barriers on imports of physical capital and intermediate inputs. We document that financially underdeveloped economies feature a slower response of real GDP, consumption, and investment following trade liberalization episodes that improve access to imported production inputs. To quantify the role of financial development, we set up a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms subject to financial constraints and estimate it to match salient features from Colombian ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-038

Working Paper
Left behind: SSI in the era of welfare reform
Daly, Mary C.; Burkhauser, Richard V. (2003)
SSI was established in 1972, born out of a compromise at the time between those wanting to provide a guaranteed income floor and those wishing to limit it to individuals not expected to work: the aged, blind, and disabled. SSI is now the largest federal means-tested program in the United States, serving a population dominated by low-income adults and children with disabilities. With other forms of federal support devolving to state programs (e.g., welfare), policymakers pressing to redefine social expectations about who should and should not work, and the Americans with Disabilities Act ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2003-12

Working Paper
A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply
Moffitt, Robert A.; Keane, Michael P. (1995)
One of the long-standing issues in the literature on transfer programs for the U.S. low-income population concerns the high cumulative marginal tax rate on earnings induced by participation in the multiplicity of programs offered by the government. Empirical work on the issue has reached an impasse partly because the analytic solution to the choice problem is intractable and partly because the model requires the estimation of multiple sets of equations with limited dependent variables, an estimation problem which until recently has been computationally infeasible. In this paper we estimate a ...
Working Papers , Paper 557

Working Paper
Liquidity and welfare
Wen, Yi (2012)
This paper develops an analytically tractable Bewley model of money featuring capital and financial intermediation. It is shown that when money is a vital form of liquidity to meet uncertain consumption needs, the welfare costs of inflation can be extremely large. With log utility and parameter values that best match both the aggregate money demand curve suggested by Lucas (2000) and the variance of household consumption, agents in our model are willing to reduce consumption by 7% ~ 10% (or more) to avoid 10% annual inflation. In other words, raising the U.S. inflation target from 2% to 3% ...
Working Papers , Paper 2012-037

Journal Article
Reforming Social Security: a welfare analysis
Pecchenino, Rowena A.; Pollard, Patricia S. (1998-03)
Review , Issue Mar , Pages 19-30

Working Paper
Evidence of Accelerating Mismeasurement of Growth and Inflation in the U.S. in the 21st Century
Nakamura, Leonard I. (2020-10-22)
Corporate equity market values, profitability, and intangible investment have reached high proportions of income. Are these investments and their outcomes evidence of a wellfunctioning society? We do not see the rapid growth in aggregate measures of output that would justify these investments and rewards. And why did the yield curve invert as the U.S. federal funds rate reached 2⅜ percent in early 2019, if the inflation rate was near 2 percent? We present the broad case that mismeasurement of growth and prices accelerated in the U.S. during the 21st century and may be responsible for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-41

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