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Working Paper
Tractable Rare Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing
Liao, Gordon Y.; Barro, Robert J. (2019-09-27)
We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative agent with Epstein-Zin utility. The formula conforms with options data on the S&P 500 index from 1983-2018 and for analogous indices for other countries. The disaster probability, inferred from monthly fixed effects, is highly correlated across countries, peaks during the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-073

Discussion Paper
How Has Treasury Market Liquidity Evolved in 2023?
Fleming, Michael J. (2023-10-17)
In a 2022 post, we showed how liquidity conditions in the U.S. Treasury securities market had worsened as supply disruptions, high inflation, and geopolitical conflict increased uncertainty about the expected path of interest rates. In this post, we revisit some commonly used metrics to assess how market liquidity has evolved since. We find that liquidity worsened abruptly In March 2023 after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, but then quickly improved to levels close to those of the preceding year. As in 2022, liquidity in 2023 continues to closely track the level that ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231017

Journal Article
A Life-Cycle Model with Individual Volatility Dynamics
Karabarbounis, Marios (2020)
This article solves a heterogeneous-agents, life-cycle model with idiosyncratic, time-varying volatility. Volatility is modeled based on an ARCH specification. I compare the life-cycle behavior of savings and consumption in a model with idiosyncratic volatility versus typical models with constant income risk. Idiosyncratic volatility generates a larger incentive to save precautionarily and, as a result, a lower consumption inequality.
Economic Quarterly , Volume 4Q , Pages 159-171

Working Paper
Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches
Ahrens, Maximilian; Erdemlioglu, Deniz; McMahon, Michael; Neely, Christopher J.; Yang, Xiye (2023-05-31)
Researchers have carefully studied post-meeting central bank communication and have found that it often moves markets, but they have paid less attention to the more frequent central bankers’ speeches. We create a novel dataset of US Federal Reserve speeches and use supervised multimodal natural language processing methods to identify how monetary policy news affect financial volatility and tail risk through implied changes in forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment. We find that news in central bankers’ speeches can help explain volatility and tail risk in both equity and bond ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-013

Working Paper
Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle
Matschke, Johannes; Lovchikova, Marina (2021-09-08)
Capital flows into emerging markets are volatile and associated with risks. A common prescription is to impose counter-cyclical capital controls that tighten during economic booms to mitigate future sudden-stop dynamics, but it has been challenging to document such patterns in the data. Instead, we show that emerging markets tighten their capital controls in response to volatility in international financial markets and elevated risk aversion. We develop a model in which this behavior arises from a desire to manipulate the risk premium. When investors are more risk-averse or markets are ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 21-08

Working Paper
Interest Rate Volatility and Sudden Stops : An Empirical Investigation
Tenorio, Gabriel; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M. (2017-07)
Using a multi-country regime-switching vector autoregressive (VAR) model we document the existence of two regimes in the volatility of interest rates at which emerging economies borrow from international financial markets, and study the statistical relationship of such regimes with episodes of sudden stops. Periods of high volatility tend to be persistent and are associated with high interest rates, the occurrence of sudden stops in external financing, and large declines in economic activity. Most strikingly, we show that regime switches drive the countercyclicality of interest rates in ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1209

Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of Futures Margin Changes: Determinants and Policy Implications
Abruzzo, Nicole; Park, Yang-Ho (2014-09-02)
Margin regulation raises two policy concerns. First, an alignment of margins to volatility can amplify procyclicality, leading to a build-up of excess leverage in good times and a forced deleverage in bad times. Second, competition among central counterparties (CCPs) can result in lower margin levels in order to attract more trading volume, which is referred to as a "race to the bottom." Motivated by these issues, we empirically analyze the determinants of margin changes by using a data set of various futures margins from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group. We first find that CME Group ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-86

Working Paper
Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures
Datta, Deepa Dhume; Rodriguez, Marius del Giudice; Rogers, John H.; Londono, Juan M.; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Ferreira, Thiago Revil T.; Iacoviello, Matteo; Beltran, Daniel O.; Sun, Bo; Li, Canlin (2017-11-21)
A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty measures differ across multiple dimensions, including the method of calculation, the underlying outcome (that is, the asset price or macroeconomic variable), and the horizon at which they are calculated. Therefore, in this paper, we review the literature on global risk, uncertainty, and volatility ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1216

Working Paper
What is Certain about Uncertainty?
Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo; Sarisoy, Cisil; Londono, Juan M.; Rogers, John H.; Datta, Deepa Dhume; Ferreira, Thiago Revil T.; Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.; Loria, Francesca; Ma, Sai; Rodriguez, Marius del Giudice; Zer, Ilknur (2020-07-16)
Researchers, policymakers, and market participants have become increasingly focused on the effects of uncertainty and risk on financial market and economic outcomes. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the many existing measures of risk, uncertainty, and volatility. It summarizes what these measures capture, how they are constructed, and their effects, paying particular attention to large uncertainty spikes, such as those appearing concurrently with the outbreak of COVID-19. The measures are divided into three types: (1) news-based, survey- based, and econometric; (2) asset market ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1294

Working Paper
Diamond-Dybvig and Beyond: On the Instability of Banking
Gu, Chao; Monnet, Cyril; Nosal, Ed; Wright, Randall (2023-02-13)
Are financial intermediaries—in particular, banks—inherently unstable or fragile, and if so, why? We address this question theoretically by analyzing whether model economies with financial intermediation are more prone than those without it to multiple, cyclic, or stochastic equilibria. We consider several formalizations: insurance-based banking, models with reputational considerations, those with fixed costs and delegated investment, and those where bank liabilities serve as payment instruments. Importantly for the issue at hand, in each case banking arrangements arise endogenously. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2023-02

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