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Working Paper
On the Importance of the Participation Margin for Market Fluctuations
Sahin, Aysegul; Hobijn, Bart; Elsby, Michael (2013-02-25)
Conventional analyses of cyclical fluctuations in the labor market ascribe a minor role to the labor force participation margin. In contrast, a flows-based decomposition of the variation in labor market stocks reveals that transitions at the participation margin account for around one-third of the cyclical variation in the unemployment rate. This result is robust to adjustments of data for spurious transitions, and for time aggregation. Inferences from conventional, stocks-based analyses of labor force participation are shown to be subject to a stock-flow fallacy, neglecting the offsetting ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-05

Conference Paper
Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy - comments
Kiley, Michael T. (2008)
Historical experience suggests an important role for some deviation from the most restricted form of rational expectations in inflation dynamics, but also shows that other aspects of sluggish price adjustment, such as nominal rigidities, are important; and the available indicators of inflation expectations show that imperfect information regarding central bank intentions has been one source of inertia in inflation expectations.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis
Arbogast, Iris; Dupor, Bill (2023-02-08)
This paper uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, others stopped as early as June. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the second month following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 27 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and robust to a wide array ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-010

Working Paper
Vacancy Chains
Elsby, Michael; Michaels, Ryan; Gottfries, Axel; Ratner, David (2022-08-19)
Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-23

Journal Article
How much lower can the unemployment rate go?
Carlson, Keith M. (1988-07)
Review , Issue Jul , Pages 44-57

Working Paper
The Shimer puzzle and the identification of productivity shocks
Barnichon, Regis (2009)
Shimer (2005) argues that the Mortensen-Pissarides (MP) model of unemployment lacks an amplification mechanism because it generates less than 10 percent of the observed business cycle fluctuations in unemployment given labor productivity shocks of plausible magnitude. This paper argues that part of the problem lies with the identification of productivity shocks. Because of the endogeneity of measured labor productivity, filtering out the trend component as in Shimer (2005) may not correctly identify the shocks driving unemployment. Using a New-Keynesian framework to control for the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2009-04

Journal Article
Challenges to the natural rate framework
Weiner, Stuart E. (1995-04)
By most estimates, the U.S. unemployment rate is currently below its "natural rate." The implication is the economy is operating at an unsustainably high level of resource utilization. Capacity levels are being strained, tending to put upward pressure on wages and prices. In anticipation of these rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has firmed monetary policy several times over the past year.> A majority of mainstream economists appear comfortable with the natural rate framework, in part because it has tracked inflation successfully over the past 35 years. Despite its ...
Economic Review , Volume 80 , Issue Q II , Pages 19-25

Briefing
Measurement of unemployment
Bradbury, Katharine L. (2006)
Measures of unemployment tally people without a job who are looking for one. For measurement purposes, the critical question is what constitutes ?looking.? This article summarizes how unemployment is measured in the United States and Europe, and describes recent research investigating the permeability of the dividing line between the unemployed and ?marginally attached? subgroups of those out of the labor market. A continuum between unemployed and entirely inactive individuals indicates that measures beyond unemployment may be useful in judging the state of the labor market.
Public Policy Brief

Working Paper
Estimating Duration Dependence on Re-employment Wages When Reservation Wages Are Binding
Hernandez Martinez, Victor; Liu, Kaixin; Grice, Richard (2023-09-25)
This paper documents a novel finding indicating that re-employment wages are elastic to the level of unemployment insurance (i.e., a binding reservation wage) and adapts the IV estimator for duration dependence in Schmieder et al. (2016) to account for this fact. Using administrative data from Spain, we find that unemployed workers lower their re-employment wages by 3 percent immediately after the exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Workers’ characteristics and permanent unobserved heterogeneity cannot explain this. To estimate duration dependence, we extend the IV framework ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-21

Working Paper
Optimal labor-market policy in recessions
Kuester, Keith; Jung, Philip (2011)
The authors examine the optimal labor market-policy mix over the business cycle. In a search and matching model with risk-averse workers, endogenous hiring and separation, and unobservable search effort they first show how to decentralize the constrained-efficient allocation. This can be achieved by a combination of a production tax and three labor-market policy instruments, namely, a vacancy subsidy, a layoff tax and unemployment benefits. The authors derive analytical expressions for the optimal setting of each of these for the steady state and for the business cycle. Their propositions ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-48

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