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Working Paper
The Jobs Effect of Ending Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: A State-Level Analysis
Arbogast, Iris; Dupor, Bill (2023-02-08)
This paper uses the asynchronous cessation of emergency unemployment benefits (EUB) in 2021 to investigate the jobs impact of ending unemployment benefits. While some states stopped providing EUB in September, others stopped as early as June. Using the cessation month as an instrument, we estimate the effect on employment of reducing unemployment rolls. In the second month following a state’s program termination, for every 100 person reduction in beneficiaries, state employment causally increased by about 27 persons. The effect is statistically different from zero and robust to a wide array ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-010

Working Paper
Vacancy Chains
Elsby, Michael; Michaels, Ryan; Gottfries, Axel; Ratner, David (2022-08-19)
Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-23

Working Paper
Estimating Duration Dependence on Re-employment Wages When Reservation Wages Are Binding
Hernandez Martinez, Victor; Liu, Kaixin; Grice, Richard (2023-09-25)
This paper documents a novel finding indicating that re-employment wages are elastic to the level of unemployment insurance (i.e., a binding reservation wage) and adapts the IV estimator for duration dependence in Schmieder et al. (2016) to account for this fact. Using administrative data from Spain, we find that unemployed workers lower their re-employment wages by 3 percent immediately after the exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Workers’ characteristics and permanent unobserved heterogeneity cannot explain this. To estimate duration dependence, we extend the IV framework ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-21

COVID-19’s Impact on U.S. Home Production
Leukhina, Oksana; Yu, Zhixiu (2021-01-19)
The large drop in weekly work hours during the pandemic led to increased time spent on activities like cooking and child care.
On the Economy

Briefing
The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends
Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-04)
Following early 2020 responses to the pandemic, labor force participation declined dramatically and has remained below its 2019 level, whereas the unemployment rate recovered briskly. We estimate the trend of labor force participation and unemployment and find a substantial impact of the pandemic on estimates of trend. It turns out that levels of labor force participation and unemployment in 2021 were approaching their estimated trends. A return to 2019 levels would then represent a tight labor market, especially relative to long-run demographic trends that suggest further declines in the ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 12

A Closer Look at the Correlation Between Google Trends and Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fogarty, Michael; Butters, R. Andrew; Brave, Scott A. (2020-06-17)
Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been growing interest in tracking labor market activity with “big data” sources like Google Trends.1 Just as an example, one can track how the number of Google searches with the term unemployment office has changed over the past week for the Chicago metro area or explore how unemployment became one of the top searched issues across the U.S. during the early months of the pandemic here.
Chicago Fed Insights

Discussion Paper
What Explains the Post–2011 Trends of Longer Maturities and Rising Default Rates on Auto Loans?
Wang, Jenna; Calem, Paul S.; Ramasamy, Chellappan (2020-04-06)
This paper quantifies relationships of long-term auto borrowing and auto-loan default to observable borrower characteristics and economic variables. We also quantify the residual components of the trends in long-term borrowing and delinquency not attributable to identifiable factors. Second, our paper provides new evidence on the relationship between longer-term borrowing and auto-loan default risk. We find that observable factors associated with the choice of a long loan term usually indicate an increased risk of default. We also find that the increasing share of long-term loans and the ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 20-02

Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina (2023-09-13)
This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-021

Journal Article
Where Is the Phillips Curve?
Fujita, Shigeru (2019-07)
A closer look at the Phillips curve helps us understand why our low unemployment rate hasn?t led to a bigger rise in prices or wages
Economic Insights , Volume 4 , Issue 3 , Pages 12-19

Essay
Mental Health during the Pandemic
Kassens, Alice; Rodgers, William M. (2023-05-09)
Unemployment rates, public health policy and the severity of COVID-19 cases help explain patterns of anxiety among different groups during the pandemic.
Economic Equity Insights

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